Harry Hindsight

Who wants it ?

Right, who wants it ?? Form an orderly queue, please !

Excuse my forthright nature this morning, but it arises from a sequence of misfortunes which befell me on the way into the office this morning ... buses + trains + incompetence = very unhappy Potter. Couple that with the fact that Harry is wrapping a keyboard around various techies' heads and you will understand why I have 'hijacked' Harry's Thoughts for a rant !

First up, Anglia Railways. Did you know that as part of the on-going impementation of privatised services on our fabulous railway network (not !) they will offer not just First and Standard class tickets, but now they will also be offering passengers the chance to purchase a Third Class ticket. This will come at exactly the same price as Standard Class, but will also entitle you to an extra special seat .... situated on the floor between the freezing cold 30 year old carriages at no extra cost ! How about that, then ? Oh, I can see the queues forming at Liverpool St. as I type ! Apparently, if you accidentally purchase a Second Class ticket under the misguided perception that that would actually entitle you to a seat on an InterCity sevice, they may even offer Third Class passengers compensation for being so stupid. How nice of them !

Next ......

I apologise to long standing members of the service, but it has got to be our old friends across La Manche Anglaise .... ie France !

On the serious (!) front it was intriguing to note that France is currently arguing with the Euro Commission that it shouldn't be subject to the same budgetary rules as Germany and other Euro States, since France has a far greater defence expenditure than most other states, particularly Germany. I find that a bit rich coming from the country which installed the Maginot Line .... but, forgot to plug up one end ! I also find all this wrangling over whether France, Germany et al should be allowed to break the rules pertaining to the Suicide Pact in times of an economic downturn somewhat surprising. Was this not the very argument expounded by most rational economists when this ridiculous idea first surfaced ?? Euro Finance Ministers seem indifferent to a strong Euro, saying that it demonstrates the market's confidence in the future Euro economy. Crap ! We all know it's a direct result of the structural imbalances surrounding the dollar, so why try to kid us ? All the current dollar weakness is doing is putting more strain on the Euro economy at exactly the time when it is the least well positioned of the major global economies to help the dollar out of its quagmire ! If the rules are not going to be followed, just scrap the Suicide Pact .... you never know it may allow for those 'automatic stabilisers' to work as the god of economics originally planned.

Continuing on the French theme, you have got to love the cheek of the Haitian government ! Just at a time when France is doing all it can to restrain government spending in order to get its finances back below the 3% deficit limit, Haiti comes along and demands $22 bln of backpayments ! For what ? For compensation resulting from the FFr 90 mln Haiti was forced to pay France to escape the shackles of slavery back in 1825. Nice one ! However, I imagine the demand will be met with pretty short shrift from Paris. After all, senior politicians have got enough on their plate with the current 'Jobs for the Boys' scandal surounding Juppe's tenure as Paris Mayor at the start of the 90s. Chirac had nothing to do with any of this, of course !

Finally, continuing on the political front, California has got to be having an official laugh ! The new Governor can probably hardly even speak German, let alone American English ! You would have thought they would have learned their lesson from past actors taking up political posts, but at least I guess it means we won't have to be subjected to any of his wonderful films for the next few years. However, it does look like the waters ahead may be somewhat stormy for the new boy. Given the number of women lining up claiming various forms of sexual harassment against the new Governor, maybe Arnie would have been better advised to take up a new career as a Premiership footballer, or doesn't he like Coke ?

I wonder who will win our next General Election ? Will it be Pierce, Roger or Sean ? James Bond as Prime Minister ? More stupid things have happened .......

Calm Potter.

Harry Gets It

The markets are somewhat muted today though an under-current of nervousness pervades ahead of today's US payroll data. This could be hard to analyse due to a number of revisions though Potter tells me that he understands it all but then he is a bit of an anorak. Yesterday the bears got squeezed which was pretty much a dead cert after an analyst from one of the spreadbet forms came on CNBC and said his customers were short. It is a fairly well known fact that over 80% of spreadbet customers lose money and indeed it is something that many of these firms rely on. Our position in the mighty HSBC has performed admirably though we need an extension through the years highs in order to reach our next major level of 875. The S&P now has a short term range of 1012 to 1024 and a breakout of this will be watched aegerly.

In Forex market many traders are nursing hangovers after the traditional Thursday night drinkies; far better to have a hangover on the firms time being the mantra of the Spot boys. Dollar Yen will probably be the focus today with the recent lows and intervention levels being tested.

In the news today the FSA have decided to close the loophole that allowed directors of quoted firms to inside trade spreadbets and CFD's. You never know perhaps they might one day look at the "rumoured practice" of bank market makers front running corporate orders on personal accounts; but then again I am sure we would all find it absurd if such dodgy dealing could possibly be going on.

Our opening up of the Muppet of the Month awards saw a sudden increase in registering activity and then voting. Spookily enough most of these new sign ups voted for yours truly in the awards and cynical old me can't help wondering whether certain firms have been involved in market manipulation.Still if you dole it out you have to learn to take it so I can confirm that I am Septembers Muppet of the Month. Being up a significant amount of money on the year, long this week of HSBC at 696p and having been offered many million of dollars from a number of institutions for a hedge fund I think I can live with it!

Harry

Muppet Award Goes Democratic

Nervousness pervaded both the forex and Equity markets yesterday.I was stopped out of my Euro Stg which was a bit disappointing but at least it was still a profit. My plans for buying HSBC at 790p was thwarted when my brokers trading platform failed for a number of hours and they were as easy to contact on the phone as a customer sales agent at BT. Perhaps they should change their name from Deal4Free to DealMaybe? It's a shame when a company that has the best prices and software and then messes it up. Still it happens and we move on and I will.

This leads on nicely to our Muppet of the Month award which I have no doubt will cause even more of a stir this month. We are going to introduce a bit of democracy and are allowing members of the portal to vote. the nominees are:

MoneyAM.
I have to point out that a few minutes after sending yesterdays newsletter I received a jolly pleasant enail from them (nice to see they have signed up) informing me that my removal from their mailing list had absolutely nothing to do with my criticism of their advertisers, who pay them lots of money. It was apparently for my own benefit as they had deduced that I didn't want to receive their emails and I was incapable of removing myself from the mailing list. Now you have to admit that is really quite astounding customer service.

Darren Winters
As I wrote on September 24:
"Whilst away I am going to try and come up with a title for me. Somewhere during the dreaded second bottle last night I decided I needed at title; after all Alpesh Patel styles himself as the "Uk's leading market commentator" (quite what market he comments on I don't know) and Darren Winters calls himself "The UK's top market speaker" as well as a "full time trader, international investment speaker and investment writer." Being a bit thick will someone please explain to me how can someone be a full time trader when you are giving seminars everyday? Perhaps it is down to the amazing method of investing that Mr Winters teaches which, according to him has made over 20% per year for the last 27 years by only doing an hours work a year. This happens to be the statistic of Warren Buffetts Berkshire Hathaway Fund and no doubt the "Sage of Omaha" will be upset to find out that he really didn't need to spend all that time thoroughly researching his investments. I would love to go to one of Mr Winters Two day Investment Seminars to learn his four "golden rules that every successful investor should know" but then perhaps I would be breaking my Cardinal Rule of Trading: DON'T BE A SUCKER."

Harry
Yes I do mean me, after all its only fair. I have received a number of complaints over the last month. A number of "suits" from city institutions have informed me that I have a bad attitude. I am apparently rude and disrespectful; tell me something I don't know ! However I feel I could be deserving for failing to re-short British airways above 200p and the Dollar Swiss above 1.4000 when I said that I would be looking to do so.

The Red Hot Penny Share Guide
On September 10 I wrote:
"Their latest partner advertisement says that I will get a free report of "5 stocks set to Rocket." If I sign up I am allowed to get in on a "winning strategy that has made a small group of investors 5-figure profits-during a 3rd straight bear market year!" This truly wonderful opportunity is being brought to us from our old friends at the Red Hot Penny Share Guide (RHPSG). Readers might remember them as our Muppet of the Month winners for November last year, Harry's Thoughts 02-12-02 page 9. As with all such offers it is important to read the small print. The portfolio of all their shares, according to their figures, is up a not so amazing 9.54% over the last 3 years. I say according to their figures because unlike most of us who buy and sell shares the RHPSG get to trade off the mid prices and don't have to pay the spread. This is awfully convenient as in penny shares the spread can be up to 25% of the share price so it is quite likely that if you had traded every single tip you would have lost money, so no doubt the "small group of investors" who made the 5-figure profits was very small indeed!"

Deal4free
Or perhaps more correctly DealMaybe?
Granted they have amongst the best prices and software but when it gets busy their platform goes down as much as Monica Lewinsky which when added to the fact that they do not have enough people to answer the phones makes it frustrating to be a customer.

Anyway get voting and no doubt there will be a scramble as a number of institutions get their staff to sign up.

Harry