The markets are dead thus far and I don't really see that changing a great deal until Monday. The S&P closed strongly last night and this will have heartened the bulls who will now have their eyes on taking out the recent highs. The recent strength of the SOXX and the apparent strength of recent data certainly indicates that this will be the way of things though I still cant get rid of this nagging feeling that there is something wrong. Yesterdays data showed no rise in consumption and weak employment in the manufacturing sector. Granted people could be holding off purchasing for a Xmas blitz and manufacturing in the US has been in decline for years with the mass movement of manufacturing jobs to China.
Right so how do we play this market? I believe we have two possible scenarios. Equities will either keep trending higher or we will have an explosive squeeze higher followed by a rapid fall. At the start of the year we predicted a move down in the FTSE to 3451 followed by a rise up to 4530. Though I think we have seen the bulk of the rise we need to see an explosive event to enable the trend to turn. It is very rare for trends to just falter and slowly turn. What generally happens, often within the same day, is that the trend extends massively and then retraces on large volume. This price action is needed to suck in the stop losses of the bears as well as buying from the retail market; as the old saying goes: " the market is manipulated up and then sold to the public on the way down." Potter and I will accordingly come up with strategies for both scenarios.
So which way will the market go Harry? I hear you say. Up or down? Well for the moment this fence is digging in my butt though I have just come up with a method of finding out, and no for once we are not going to find out what Commerzbank think and do the opposite. The next trend will be determined by the consumer and how confident they are over the coming months. The way to find this out is easy and together we can establish the likelihood of the next trend. We have accordingly published a new poll on the website to ascertain spending habits over Xmas. I would urge everybody to take the time to do this and to be honest; yes I know that is hard for you brokers out there but give it a go. The more data we have the more accurate it will be and it could enable us all to make some money.
A flick through today's newspapers has enabled me to find a Xmas present for the Handbrake. It's a touch pricey at £8000 but methinks it's worth the price. Developed in the US the Orgasmotron is a pacemaker attached to a woman's spine which when activated helps the lady achieve almost immediate multiple orgasms. On second thoughts though it is alot of money just to save an hour every night and morning, oh and during the afternoon at weekends (yes my nose is growing). I think I will go back to my original idea but which ones do I choose, Silicone or Saline?
Pinocchio
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